GCM do not model Convection
More problems for the models: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds climate models do not realistically simulate convection, "a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy," because of a large gap in the scale or resolution required to simulate convection [1-2 km] compared to global atmospheric motions [on the order of 10,000 km].
According to the authors, "It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10^0 km) and global motions (10^4 km)." The authors find "an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing.
The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this [2 km] resolution," which is a much, much smaller resolution than used by IPCC climate models [50-100km grid size in AR5 models].
Skeptics such as Dr. Noor van Andel have shown that the so-called "human fingerprint" or "hot spot" of global warming [that exists only in climate models] is a consequence of incorrect assumptions regarding convection, and this new paper may shed light on the reasons why. Deep moist atmospheric convection in a sub-kilometer global simulation Yoshiaki Miyamoto,
Yoshiyuki Kajikawa, Ryuji Yoshida, Tsuyoshi Yamaura, Hisashi Yashiro, Hirofumi Tomita
Deep moist atmospheric convection is a key element of the weather and climate system for transporting mass, momentum, and thermal energy. It has been challenging to simulate convection realistically in global atmospheric models, because of the large gap in spatial scales between convection (10^0 km) and global motions (10^4 km).
We conducted the first ever sub-kilometer global simulation and described the features of convection. Through a series of grid-refinement resolution testing, we found that an essential change for convection statistics occurred around 2-km grid spacing. The convection structure, number of convective cells, and distance to the nearest convective cell dramatically changed at this resolution.
The convection core was resolved using multiple grids in simulations with grid spacings less than 2.0 km.
We should revisit occasionally what the proper role of government is. As the constitution was a good sense of direction, we need a core set of principles to add in order to deal with the future.
So many want to engineer society, remove risk, assist certain groups, rather than let individuals thrive and raise communities. Why?
Is Democracy where we all "get it good and hard" or is it the best means to a free society?
Should we roll with the special interests, or make the government achieve its proper role, what is that role, and how to do this?
When do deficits and governments become too large?
Government is becoming more elitist while trying to sell corrections to problems it created, what makes this possible?
GCM Model Errors estimate of the large error
GCM Model Results The results of the IPCC
GCM do not model Convection Well
Patrick Michaels on GCM Models
